Sunday, January 18, 2009

Dementia Can Wreak Havoc on Family Finances

by Roya Wolverson

BILL BRIDGWATER HAD the investing bug. Even as he was busy working as an executive for several IT companies, he made time to juggle more than $1 million in assets. At any given time, he was buying and selling foreign stocks, municipal bonds, certificates of deposit and real estate. On family vacations, in lieu of a novel, Bridgwater brought a laptop to the beach to check on his investments. "Nothing could come between me, my phone and my emails except a coast-to-coast flight," says Bridgwater, who lives outside Denver.
But something did get in the way of Bridgwater's mental acuity. At work his concentration began to slip, so he pulled all-nighters to try to keep up. Soon problems were cropping up in his investing life. Picking stocks, which for decades had been an enjoyable hobby, became an overwhelmingly complex chore. Bridgwater couldn't even muster the focus to correctly fill out his checkbook. When he did manage to get the numbers written in the right order, he would mix up how to write them on the next line or tear the carbon out and have to call his bank. He quit his job, and after consulting with numerous doctors, Bridgwater, then 48, was eventually diagnosed with early-onset Alzheimer's disease. He put his wife in charge of his personal accounts, moved his assets into simpler, more conservative investments and became active in the Alzheimer's Association. But by the time he figured out what was wrong, he had already lost tens of thousands of dollars.
Wild mood swings. Memory loss. Confusion. The symptoms of dementia have long been the stuff of nightmares for people as they grow older. But there's an often overlooked side effect: how the malady can cause people to make terrible financial decisions. According to dementia experts and victims' family members, the problems are often a lot more serious than forgetting how to balance your checkbook. People suffering from dementia have looked on as their investments plunged in value, misread how much money they owed in taxes, even told their brokers to buy when they meant to say "sell." Already, there are thousands of cases of seniors beset by dementia who are trading stocks to their own detriment or investing in risky products that have led each to lose hundreds of thousands of dollars. It's a situation that leaves everyone from brokers and financial planners to family members caught in a tragic bind. Financial matters can become treacherous for people who "may not even be able to spell their own name," says John Gannon, director of investor education for the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority, or FINRA, the broker-funded agency that oversees brokers and securities firms.
And things could get much worse. A Duke University study, funded by the National Institutes of Health, estimates that 14 percent of people over age 70 have some form of dementia. If that trend holds, then more than 11 million baby boomers could develop the condition. Combine that unsettling statistic with the fact that this demographic controls more than $19 trillion in assets, and experts fear that over the next decade boomers will be increasingly at risk of unwittingly destroying their own nest eggs. At the moment, there is little in the way of laws, standards or policies to deal with the problem. Some brokerages and regulators "are almost blind to the idea that folks have diminished capacity over the years," says Seth Lipner, a Garden City, N.Y.-based securities lawyer.
Like many of these cases, the story of Janet Hilowitz and her now-deceased mother, Eleanor, started as a disagreement over investment styles and turned into a multiyear struggle to prove that Eleanor had dementia. In the mid-1990s, Janet, a retired university professor in Boston, started to question her mother's financial decisions after Eleanor, then in her early 70s, moved more than 75 percent of her portfolio into technology stocks. Janet says she feared the move was too risky, but her mother was intensely stubborn and accused Janet of trying to meddle with her money. For years nothing anybody said could persuade Eleanor to alter her investments. But eventually, Janet claims, her mother admitted she couldn't keep up with her stocks anymore. That concession came in 1999 and prompted a worried Janet to contact her mother's broker at Smith Barney. Janet wanted her mother's investments moved into safer holdings, but the brokerage wouldn't help. The reason, according to Janet: She was not authorized to trade on her mother's account. It took years of court hearings, doctor appointments and psychiatric analysis for Janet to prove that her mother was, in fact, incapacitated. And while Janet argued to get control of her mother's accounts, Eleanor's assets rose and fell with the tech boom. By 2003, the year Janet was granted guardianship to manage her mother's account, the bursting of the tech bubble had claimed almost $1 million, most of her mother's life savings.
The brokerage's caution might have been justified. After all, Smith Barney had worked with Eleanor for many years. And when Janet requested to have her mother's assets shifted into more-conservative investments, she had neither her mother's permission nor power of attorney. According to Janet and her lawyer, Janet took Smith Barney to arbitration, arguing that the company was not acting in her mother's best interests. She lost. (Smith Barney won't comment on the specifics of any case. "We take retirement advice and servicing our clients very seriously and have taken great strides in training and informational material for both clients and employees," says company spokesperson Alex Samuelson.)
Some brokers try to be proactive and talk to family members if they suspect their clients are losing their faculties. "Usually, I notice the problem before the family does," says Alexandra Armstrong, a Washington, D.C.-based financial planner who has dozens of clients over age 65. More often, though, brokers and investment advisers have so little contact with an aging client that subtle shifts in behavior can easily fly under the radar. In Roseville, Calif., for example, Jim Wilson grieved as his mother, Ruth, far away in Connecticut, developed dementia. Because he was focused on dementia's outward symptoms, Jim says he didn't know about an account containing stock options Ruth had inherited from her mother. Complicating the matter: Ruth lost touch with her local brokerage, which eventually transferred her account to a Florida-based broker she would never meet.
Years later Jim got a call from his mother, who had a $33,000 capital gains tax bill stemming from the account. He discovered that most of the $228,000 in the account had been invested in risky, high-yield junk bonds — not a traditionally sound investment for an older person. Jim didn't know it at the time, but his mother had received a call from the Florida-based broker months earlier to get permission to change the account's investments. Jim says his mother had no idea what she had authorized the broker to do. "I'm sure she was happy to chat, because she was lonely," Jim says. He took the brokerage, Advest, to arbitration and won $16,000. The broker was reprimanded, but Jim wasn't satisfied. "He clearly didn't know his client and took advantage of her," he says. Merrill Lynch, which now owns Advest, declined to comment.
Of course, regulating how securities are sold to seniors is no easy task, partly because dementia is hard to prove. Financial advisers say investors with dementia can be confused and then an hour later be totally lucid. The brokerage industry and the agencies that regulate it also do not want to be responsible for trying to figure out whether a client has dementia. "I'm not a medical professional," says Mary Shapiro, chief executive of FINRA, the broker regulator. Granted, there are laws against flat-out fraud, but FINRA's guidelines on investors who suffer from diminished capacity are just that, guidelines. Unlike financial advisers, who are legally bound to act in a client's interest first and foremost, brokers are required only to sell clients products that are "suitable." FINRA has fined brokers whom it felt took advantage of mentally incapacitated clients, but it is loath to write specific rules, Shapiro says, because every client is different. Stricter limitations on brokers could also lead to ageism, wherein brokers, leery of lawsuits, shun older clients regardless of their health. Rather, brokers and financial advisers have to find ways to be cautious with older clients without "stereotyping when Grandpa walks in," says John Rother, the public-policy director for AARP, the senior advocacy group.
Indeed, among regulators, politicians and some advocacy groups, writing new laws or regulations regarding mentally impaired investors has taken a backseat to merely getting people educated about the topic. The Senate Committee on Aging is looking at introducing legislation that would require stricter limitations to prevent outright fraud by brokers and financial advisers who intentionally mislead clients with phony "senior specialist" titles or other designations. The Securities and Exchange Commission is aware of the problem of investors with diminished mental capacity — it made the issue a topic at its annual Senior Summit in September. The AARP released a booklet this spring in conjunction with the Financial Planning Association about how to deal with clients as they age, but the organization doesn't have any position on new policies.
Even under existing rules, it can be difficult to finesse a client into doing what is financially "suitable" if the client, like Hilowitz's mother, wants to do something else. Brokers also say that being too forceful with senior clients can anger them or send them running to another broker. "Unless the person is clearly incapacitated, they have to make their own mistakes," says elder-care attorney Linda Anderson. Bridgwater, the former IT executive, blames himself for his financial losses. In one slipup, he lost $9,000 when a stock he had held for several years suddenly dropped over a period of two weeks, during which he was struggling with concentration. Even in situations where he lost money through actions taken directly by his broker, Bridgwater still considers himself responsible. When, for instance, he called his Merrill Lynch broker to request that his IRA be rolled over to his Smith Barney account, the broker instead cashed it out and sent him the proceeds, leaving Bridgwater with thousands of dollars in capital gains tax he could have avoided. Bridgwater realized the mistake only when he received a check in the mail for the proceeds — he could not remember what had transpired over the phone and wondered if the broker had erred. Bridgwater now believes he only thought about telling the broker to roll over his IRA, and when he actually articulated it, he must have gotten it wrong. He chalks it up to an "Alzheimer's moment."
And there are plenty of healthy, active senior traders who have no plans to quit investing. Bruce Bailey, 80, began seriously playing the market only after he was in his early 70s. His health is great — "I don't have any health issues except a hard head," he says — and his investing interest has grown with age. Bailey says his portfolio is doing very well; the retired Army colonel started with stocks but these days likes investing in oil futures. And the Pensacola, Fla., resident loves swapping investment ideas with his adult children, along with thoughts on the economy, the stock market and geopolitics. But when asked which company manages his brokerage account, Bailey goes blank, then spends several minutes searching for an account statement.
"Scottrade," he says with an embarrassed chuckle. "I don't know how I just forgot that."

Wednesday, January 14, 2009

Are You Born To Be A Billionaire?

Maureen Farrell

Empire builders like Bill Gates and Sam Walton aren't just great businessmen. They are bona fide revolutionaries.
Self-made billionaires don't dominate industries--they transform them and spawn new ones. That takes more than intelligence, courage and luck. It takes divine-like vision.
Billionaire entrepreneurs are "not working within the confines of the current market," says Gerald Kraines, chief executive of the Levinson Institute, a business consulting firm in Jaffey, N.H. "They're anticipating things much further afield. You have to see spaces that no one else sees."
In Pictures: Do You Have What It Takes To Be A Billionaire?
In Pictures: Secrets Of The Self-Made Billionaires
In Pictures: Billionaire Inventors
The world's self-made billionaires certainly have vision in spades, spanning everything from how computers work to how people shop. But the ability to see around corners isn't the only quality that separates the very accomplished from the stratospherically wealthy. To crack the $1 billion barrier, you need total, unwavering belief in your vision--and an immutable will to pull it off.
"[Billionaire entrepreneurs] need a deep passion and a point of view about the future," says Peter Skarzynski, chief executive of Strategos, a Chicago-based consulting firm that advises global companies, including Nokia (nyse: NOK - news - people ) and Whirlpool (nyse: WHR - news - people ). "They fundamentally believe that they have a better way to solve a set of problems than how they're being solved now."
Billionaires also have a seemingly ravenous appetite for risk. It's hard enough for many of us to muster the courage to abandon our cubicles and start a small company, let alone build an empire. And while the risks pile up as businesses expand, billionaires have a confidence bordering on arrogance that checks their fear and doubt, says Skarzynski.
Are you a born billionaire? Before you tackle a serious growth strategy and all its attendant hassles, ask yourself some hard questions at the outset, says executive psychologist Debra Condren, who has worked with big names like 3M (nyse: MMM - news - people ), Chevron (nyse: CVX - news - people ) and Hewlett-Packard (nyse: HPQ - news - people ).
The most important one: Why go big at all? Are you looking to cash out in a sale? Enamored of the thought of having your own stock ticker? Suffused with competitive desire? Whatever your reason, get a grip on it before you decide to kick your zealous pursuits into high gear.
Next, ask yourself if you are willing to make tough decisions for the growth of your company. If you have an intense loyalty to the small group who helped get things off the ground, understand that those folks may not be able to come along for the ride. If you're not comfortable supplanting (or firing) them, stay small.
For entrepreneurs who prize their independence, ask yourselves how much of it you're willing to give up. As the demands mount, both your schedule and decisions become less your own; worse, you may have investors and board members to appease.
"It becomes very hard for company founders to accept that they are no longer the real boss," says Carl Robinson, a psychologist who works primarily with growing, middle-market companies.
Like holding forth in public? You'd better, because companies of any significant size need a public face. Entrepreneurs who thrive on public performances--weekly meetings, shareholder gripe sessions, even television interviews--have an easier time than those who shun the spotlight.
"You need to have the ability to fill a room and inspire people," says Condren. If public speaking isn't your forté, but you're still hankering to grow, find a confident substitute who can sell your story.
Not only do you have to be able to communicate, you need a knack for building consensus. In most cases, the bigger your business, the more input you need from those around you--and that means being willing and able to marshal them to your cause. Have a my-way-or-the-highway mentality? Can your growth plans.
In the end, chasing billionaire status--and not crashing along the way--is as much about knowing who you are as it is about knowing how to nab new customers or manage inventory. Who knows? Maybe a modest $100 million might be a better fit.
In Pictures: Do You Have What It Takes To Be A Billionaire?
In Pictures: Secrets Of The Self-Made Billionaires
In Pictures: Billionaire Inventors

Restaurateurs' Recession Survival Guide

Melanie Lindner

Rosati's Pizza has been serving up pepperoni pies since 1964. Lately, though, things aren't looking so saucy.
"We always thought pizza was a recession-proof business," says Jeff Rosati, chief financial officer of the Warrenville, Ill.-based franchiser, now with 170 stores throughout the Midwest and Southwest. "But in 2008, for the first time, our customer count went down 5%."
Rosati navigated previous downturns by angling for customers looking to substitute swank dinners with more modest pizza nights. Coupons worth a dollar or two help, but in recent months he's gone to further extremes to stay afloat--like offering a free 12-inch cheese pizza with the purchase of a large or extra large pie.
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He also jacked up prices by some 10% last year to offset the spikes in critical commodities like cheese, cooking oil and flour--each up anywhere from 70% to 300% between 2007 and 2008. Prices have since come down, but not nearly enough. "The bottom line is that people just aren't spending, and you can't make them spend money they don't have," laments Rosati.

How Ex-Presidents & Prime Ministers Make Their Money

by Ethan Trex
Upon taking up residency in the White House, a president also assumes a tidy salary of $400,000 a year, plus extra cash
for expenses. That’s certainly not the kind of change you’d find under most couch cushions, but it’s not such a princely sum that the president will be set for life when leaving office. While many leaders are either independently rich enough or old enough that they just retire after leaving office, others are desperate to make a buck or a pound. So how do ex-presidents and other former world leaders support themselves as they while away the autumn of their years?
Harry Truman:
When Truman’s presidency ended in 1953, he headed home to Independence, Missouri, but there was a nagging problem: he didn’t have any money. His business interests from prior to his political life hadn’t generated any sort of savings for him, and he thought that taken a corporate position or endorsing products would cheapen the presidency. His only income was a $112-a-month army pension, so he did what former presidents now do without thinking: he sold his memoirs. Truman received a $670,000 deal for the two-volume memoirs, but after taxes and paying his assistants, he only netted a few thousand dollars on the project. Things got so dire that Congress passed the Former Presidents Act in 1958, which gave retired commanders in chief pensions of $25,000 a year. At least his health insurance was eventually covered; when Lyndon Johnson signed Medicare into law in 1965, he presented President Truman and his wife, Bess, with the first two Medicare cards.
Carter:
Carter famously rose to the presidency from humble roots as a Georgia peanut farmer, but when he assumed office he placed his business and farming issues in a blind trust to avoid any potential conflicts of interest. It was a noble act, but it didn’t play out so well for Carter; when he resumed control of his assets, he was a million dollars in debt. He needed dough, so he started writing. And writing. Although he’s known for his work with Habitat for Humanity and his willingness to go on global diplomatic missions, Carter is a shockingly prolific author of over 20 books. Some of his tomes are standard memoirs and political texts, but Carter’s also penned children’s books, a volume of poetry, a historical novel, and Bible-study guides.
Bill Clinton:
Hillary Clinton may not have won the Democratic presidential nomination, but the Clinton family shouldn’t be standing in any bread lines in the foreseeable future. Bill Clinton pulls in $250,000 to give a speech, which has been a fairly lucrative racket for him. A 2007 report in the British newspaper The Independent estimated Clinton’s earnings from speeches alone at somewhere in the neighborhood of $40 million since he left office six years earlier. Clinton also sold his memoir My Life to Knopf for $15 million, and he serves as an advisor for the private equity firm Yucaipa Companies, a post that has pulled in at least $12.6 million. When the Clintons released their tax data in April as part of Hillary’s campaign disclosures, they showed income of $109 million since leaving the White House.

Margaret Thatcher:
Although declining health has slowed her down lately, Thatcher was fairly busy after stepping down as Prime Minister in 1990. She remained in the House of Commons until 1992. She received the title Baroness Thatcher that year, which got her a spot in the House of Lords. Thatcher also penned a two-volume memoir, The Path to Power and The Downing Street Years, which hit the New York Times’ best-seller lists in 1993 and 1994. On top of that, she served as Chancellor of the College of William and Mary from 1993 to 2000 and penned the international relations text Statecraft: Strategies for a Changing World in 2002. All of this work must have left Thatcher pretty set; after all, she has given Cambridge two million pounds to endow a chair in her name.

John Major:
Thatcher’s successor as Prime Minister has had a decidedly more low-key life since leaving the post in 1997. As an avid cricket fan, he served as the president of the Surrey County Cricket Club from 2000 to 2001 and has been on the Committee of the Marylebone Cricket Club since 2005. He also joined the private equity firm the Carlyle Group’s European Advisory Board in 1998 and supposedly rakes in 25,000 pounds for each speech he gives on the lecture circuit.

Tony Blair:
Like Bill Clinton, Blair got a book advance that ensured he wouldn’t have to hit up any of his friends for a pound or two from time to time. In October 2007 the New York Times reported that Random House purchased Blair’s memoir for a staggering $9 million. Or rather, they purchased the rights to the memoir once it’s written; despite receiving the gigantic advance, Blair’s spokesman admitted that the former Prime Minister hadn’t gotten a chance to “put pen to paper” when he signed the deal. On top of the sweet advance, Blair’s also pulling in cash as an advisor on climate change for Zurich Insurance and as a senior advisor for JPMorgan, both of which have been reported as six-figure-a-year jobs. He’s also making 500,000 pounds for a series of speeches and will teach a course on faith and globalization at Yale this year.

Resolved: This Year, I'll Keep More Cash

by Stacy Rapacon

Given the recent turmoil in the financial markets and the prospect of a continuing economic downturn, 2009 may be the year you finally make good on your resolve to start an emergency fund, pay off credit-card debt or beef up your retirement kitty. Our guidelines on cutting your expenses and saving on taxes are guaranteed to put money in your pocket -- and your savings accounts.
1. Get your spending under control by using a free online budgeting Web site, such as Mint.com. This secure site tracks your checking, credit-card and investment accounts and offers money-saving tips, such as where you can cut costs or get a better rate on your credit card. Other free sites, including Wesabe and Geezeo, offer similar budgeting tools, but focus more on their online communities where users share strategies.
With the meat and potatoes of your finances laid out, it will be easier to see where you can trim the fat. For example, assuming that you and your significant other pay the average $33 per person for a restaurant meal (according to a recent Zagat survey) and $7 per ticket for a movie, one fewer date night a month will save you a total of $960 per year.
2. Set up a flexible spending account to help pay for medical expenses. If your employer offers this benefit, you can stash pretax dollars in the account and use the money to pay for out-of-pocket bills, including physician co-payments, prescription drugs, eyeglasses and braces for the kids' teeth. You can even spend the money on over-the-counter medications, such as antacids and pain relievers.
A flex account can save you hundreds of dollars in federal, Social Security and, in most states, state income taxes. For example, if you're in the 25% tax bracket and you put $1,450 in your account -- the average contribution for 2007 -- you'd save $546 for the year, assuming a 5% state income tax and 7.65% for the FICA tax. Plus, you can tap the entire amount at any time, even if you've contributed for only a couple of months.
Under the use-it-or-lose-it rule, you could forfeit any money left in the account at the end of 2009. But many companies now offer a grace period until March 15 of the following year. In fact, if you have money left over from 2008, treat it as a bonus to help pay for a major expenditure in early 2009.
3. File a new Form W-4. If you got a tax refund for 2008, adjusting your withholding will fatten your paycheck for 2009. With an average refund of about $2,400, you could be entitled to three extra exemptions. In the 25% tax bracket, that could boost your take-home pay by $2,625 per year.
4. Raise your insurance deductibles. Increasing the deductible on your car insurance from $250 to $1,000 can save up to 15% on your premiums -- or about $125 per year on an average premium of $829. Upping the deductible on your homeowners policy can slice your rate by about 25%, or $191 on an average premium of $764.
5. Cut the cost of credit. If you tend to carry a monthly credit-card balance, go with a low-interest-rate card, such as Wells Fargo's Prime Rate card, with a 5% interest rate and $19 annual fee. For gasoline or travel perks, try the BP Visa card or >Simmons First Visa Platinum Travel Rewards card.
If you'd rather pocket a cash rebate, consider the American Express Blue Cash card. You'll get a 1% rebate for gas, groceries and drugstore purchases, and you'll get 0.5% back on everything else. Big spenders can bump up those rewards to 5% and 1.5%, respectively, after dropping $6,500 for the year. Charging $15,000 worth of everyday purchases would save you $490.
6. Open an online savings account, such as the one at www.fnbodirect.com, which was recently paying 3.25%, or about $100 a year on a $3,000 deposit. You can open the account with just $1, and there are no monthly fees or minimum-balance requirements. To avoid the temptation to spend all the money that's now lining your pockets thanks to our first five tips, set up an automatic monthly transfer from your checking account or arrange to have part of your paycheck deposited directly into your new rainy-day fund.
7. Bump up your 401(k) contributions. Already have an emergency stash? With stocks on sale, now is a great time to build -- or rebuild -- your retirement kitty. For 2009, the contribution limit for 401(k) accounts rises to $16,500, and you can add another $5,500 if you'll be 50 or older by the end of the year. Contributions aren't subject to federal or state taxes, so loading up on the full $16,500 would save you $4,950 in taxes for the year, assuming a 25% federal tax bracket and a 5% state income tax.
Can't afford the maximum contribution or want to use part of your savings for something else? Try to kick in at least enough to capture any employer match.

Saturday, December 20, 2008

Five simple ways to save yourself hundreds of dollars a month

Kelsey Hubbard


NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- We are a country of spenders who must learn the hard way to practice what our grandparents have always known: A penny saved is a penny earned.

Consider that about 43% of Americans spend more than they earn, according to estimates from the federal government, and the average household carries some $8,000 to $10,000 in credit-card debt.

To make matters worse, the average American no longer saves money. That's tumbled from a 10.8% average savings rate in 1984 into negative territory today. It's no wonder that many of us have been living way above our means for some time.

But that is getting harder and harder to do. Available credit for people to finance their lifestyles has shrunk if not dried up altogether and many Americans are standing by in shock watching their mortgage payments surge while the value of their 401(k)s drop.

It's clear Americans need to start spending less and saving more. That may sound easier said than it's done. The key is to be aware of your where your money is going and take steps to stop the leaks. Here are five simple tips that could save you hundreds of dollars a month:


1. Cash back at the pump

In the past five months gasoline prices have dropped 56%, from an average price of $4.11 to $1.80 a gallon. Somehow, households found the money to pay the higher price and survive so now people should take that excess money they are saving and bank it.

Jean Chatzky, author and personal finance expert suggests using the money you were spending on gasoline to build up that rainy day fund or to pay some your holiday expenses instead of racking up more debt.


2. Supper savings

Another great way Americans can cut costs each month is to eat at home, says Jonathan and David Murray, twin brothers who are financial advisers.

According to a recent Zagat survey, Americans will spend an average of $34 this year every time they go out to eat dinner, that's for one dinner, drink and gratuity; $76.00 if they live in one of the 20 most expensive cities. If a couple does that four times in a month the expense is close to $300 in low-cost areas and $600 in higher-cost regions, and if you have more than one drink or are treating family or friends, costs can add up quickly.

Plan a dinner or party at home and ask guests to bring a dish. If you're big on getting together with friends, family and work associates, this could save you hundreds of dollars a month.


3. Renegotiate bills

You may not be able to negotiate with the gas company or the electric company, but you can with credit cards, cable and phone services, among others. Do the homework and find out what competing cable companies, for example, are offering and ask your provider to renegotiate your bill. You may have to get through to a manager but Chatzky said she recently did this and got her monthly bill reduced by $50.


4. Smart shopping

Retailers are poised to have one of the worst holiday shopping seasons in decades and are offering deep discounts to move merchandise. But smart shoppers can save even more money by hunting down coupons. Before ordering online or going to a store, go to sites like Couponcabin.com and Ultimatecoupons.com or Google the name of a store and often you'll get a coupon code to enter at checkout. You can save 10% to 20% or more on the total order or maybe get free shipping.

There are also coupons to print out and take to the store for deeper discounts. And don't be afraid to pit one retailer against another by asking for a price match on sale items.


5. Keep the receipt

It is important to hang on to all your store receipts and keep track of sales. Savvy shoppers can possibly save even more on purchases by checking back to see if the retailers lower prices even further. If that happens within two weeks of your purchase, most stores will credit you the difference.

Thursday, November 13, 2008

7 Tips for a Better Resume

by Alesia Benedict, GetInterviews.com
Want more interviews? Job searches in tough times like now demand polished resumes more than ever. If you are attempting to write your own resume, these seven tips are important to follow:
1. Select the best format.While most resumes are written in a history chronological format, often a better technique is to evenly balance between skill-set description, achievements, and employment.
2. Make certain your document is error free.Since you are familiar with your own writing, you will "see" what you were thinking and not what is actually on the page. Do not rely on yourself to proofread your work and do not rely on spell-check. Find a friend who has strong grammar skills to check your work.
3. Find a balance between wordiness and lack of detail. Employers need to see details about your work history and experience, but they don't need to know everything. The fact that you were den leader in your Cub Scout troop is irrelevant. Keep information germane to the goal of attaining an interview. Eliminate information that is not related and will not have a direct impact on winning the interview.
4. Do not use personal pronouns."I," "me," "my," "mine," and "our" should not be on a resume. Resumes are written in first person (implied). Example: For your prior job description, instead of writing: "I hired, trained and supervised a team of assistant managers and sales associates" you would instead state that you "Hired, trained and supervised a team of assistant managers and sales associates." Fragment sentences are perfectly acceptable on a resume and actually preferred.
5. Use numerical symbols for numbers.While we are taught in school to spell out numbers less than ten, in resume writing, numerical symbols serve as "eye stops" and are a much better method. Instead of writing "Developed a dynamic team of eight consultants." it would be much more advantageous to state "Developed a dynamic team of 8 consultants."
6. Think "accomplishments" rather than "job duties."What makes you stand out from the crowd? How did you come up with a way to do things better, more efficiently, or for less cost? What won honors for you? Information such as this is vital, will grab attention, and put your resume at the top of the list.
7. Keep it positive.Reasons for leaving a job and setbacks do not have a place on a resume. Employers are seeking people who can contribute and have successfully performed in the past. Concentrate on communicating these issues and avoid any detracting information.
Remember, many first-time job interviews are conducted via telephone rather than in person. Make sure you are prepared for that telephone call when it arrives. And make sure you have a resume that will make the phone ring!

Alesia Benedict, Certified Professional Resume Writer (CPRW) and Job and Career Transition Coach (JCTC), is the president of GetInterviews.com, a resume writing firm that provides mid-management and senior level professionals with customized, branded resumes and career marketing documents. GetInterviews.com offers a free resume critique and their services come with a wonderful guarantee -- interviews in 30 days or they'll rewrite for free!

Sunday, November 02, 2008

To Retire Early, You Must Get This Move Right

by George Mannes

Paul Weber has nearly every aspect of his retirement in place. He knows when it will start: The 56-year-old, who earns some $103,000 a year doing graphic design for investment research firm Morningstar, plans to empty his desk by year's end.
He knows where he'll live: with his girlfriend Nadia in their Fox Lake, Ill. home. He knows how he'll finance it: with the $900,000 he's saved. And he knows what he'll be doing: After years of squeezing in his passion for oil painting during odd hours, Weber imagines spending his days in the studio. There's just one part of this picture-perfect retirement that Weber hasn't figured out yet: what he'll do for health insurance.
Retirement will mean the end of Weber's employer-provided health coverage. He can stay on his company's plan for 18 months by paying the full premium, thanks to the federal law known as COBRA. That would take him only to age 58, far short of when he qualifies for Medicare at age 65.
He has thought about braving that gap without insurance to avoid what he expects will be high premiums. But he recognizes that a single medical crisis - cancer, for example - could put his savings at risk. "Something like that could wipe me out," he says.
If you're dreaming of early retirement - or finding yourself forced into it - you'll likely face a similar dilemma. Two decades ago, 66% of large employers offered retiree health benefits, according to the Kaiser Family Foundation. Now only 33% do. And as Weber suspects, getting decent coverage on your own - if you can - is a pricey proposition.
Families headed by people ages 60 to 64 pay an average of $9,201 a year for a private policy, according to a health insurance trade association. Covering your deductible, co-pays and other out-of-pocket expenses could add another $6,000 a year. No wonder some young retirees resort to working at Home Depot or other companies that offer health benefits to part-time workers.
Finding affordable retiree health insurance is intimidating, no question. But it's usually not impossible, says Carolyn McClanahan, a Jacksonville financial planner and medical doctor - especially if you start your planning early.
Do a reality check. Before you get too carried away with an early-retirement dream, you need a realistic idea of whether you can buy insurance on the open market and, if so, whether you can afford it.
Unfortunately, many conditions render you virtually uninsurable in most states, Type 1 diabetes, heart disease and recent cancer among them. Even high blood pressure and obesity can eliminate your chances of buying a policy. Just as bad, you might be able to get only coverage that excludes a particular problem and its complications. So if high blood pressure were on that list, for example, you'd get no help were you to suffer a stroke.
Long before you plan your good-bye party, talk to an independent insurance agent (you'll find a directory at the National Association of Health Underwriters site at nahu.org). Armed with underwriting guidelines from different insurers, he can give you an unofficial appraisal of your odds, gratis. (Don't fret yet. If you can't get insurance this way, you may still qualify for coverage; see "Look for a last resort.").
Also ask for an estimate of your premiums. Then do the math. Assume these will continue to grow at their recent average of nearly three times the rate of inflation, or 10% annually. Add up what you'll pay through age 65. If that comes to $100,000, you may need to save that much more to afford early retirement.
Weber feels pretty healthy, though he recalls that his cholesterol level was a high risk 250 last he checked. If that's his only chronic condition, he might see premiums close to $300 a month, says John Garven, president of the Illinois State Association of Health Underwriters. But if Weber is not in as good shape as he thinks, he could pay as much as $800 monthly.
Get in better shape. The healthier you are, the easier your insurance search will be and the lower your premiums. So it's worth remedying whatever problems you can, says McClanahan. A few years before retiring, get a physical to see if key measurements - like weight, blood pressure and cholesterol - are where they should be. If not, you may be able to improve these and other conditions with medication, exercise or a change in diet. Aim for better health at least a year before you apply for insurance. As for Weber, McClanahan suggests he get to a doctor soon to gauge his health and start fixing any problems.
Probe the paperwork. Even if you're in the best of health, your medical records may paint a less flattering portrait due to errors or omissions. So when you schedule your checkup, ask your doctor to set aside time to review your medical history with you for accuracy.
Also, if you've applied for individual life, health, disability or long-term-care insurance within the past seven years, the industry may already have a file on you. You can get a free copy of what's in yours from the MIB Group (mib.com, under Consumers), an insurance industry clearinghouse. Quickly correct any errors.
Stay with the company. Firms with 20 or more employees must give you the option of staying on your insurance plan for up to 18 months. It's guaranteed coverage, but it isn't cheap. Your premium is roughly what you've been paying plus what your employer's been kicking in. (Weber, a single guy, will cough up $370 a month.)
If nothing else, COBRA buys you time - without risky coverage gaps - before you go into the private market. And if you can't get insurance because of health problems, exhausting COBRA makes you what's known as HIPAA-eligible, guaranteeing certain backup coverage (see last step).
Start the search. Launch your hunt for an individual policy a few months before you leave your job or before COBRA expires (once offered a policy, you usually have to start it within a month). You may want to begin your search at a site like EHealthInsurance.com, but keep in mind that those rates apply to the healthiest applicants. That's why an agent can be helpful in finding the best insurer and deal for your circumstances.
To keep your premiums affordable, your best bet may be a high-deductible insurance plan coupled with a health savings account (HSA), if you qualify. While you'll be on the hook for, say, the first $5,000 in expenses annually, you're protected from big-ticket disasters.
An Aetna plan from AARP (aarphealthcare.com) recently quoted $246 a month for a healthy 56-year-old male in Weber's zip code. You then pay for out-of-pocket costs with money from your HSA, which doubles as a tax-deferred savings plan. HSA contributions are tax deductible - the 2009 limit is $3,000 for an individual, $5,950 for a couple; plus another $1,000 if you're 55 or over. Funds grow tax-free; any nonmedical withdrawals after 65 are taxed as ordinary income.
Look for a last resort. If you can't get individual coverage, you have options, though they're not ideal. By law, states must make last-resort insurance available if you're HIPAA-eligible. But these plans can be limited and costly.
Another tack: Some states mandate guaranteed group plans for businesses with even one employee, which may make sense if you'll do any consulting work. For a national overview of your options, go to statehealthfacts.org and click on Managed Care & Health Insurance. Get in-depth information about your particular state at healthinsuranceinfo.net.
Finally, if you're up for adventure and can bear cold winters, you could move to one of the five states - Maine, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York and Vermont - that forbid insurers from rejecting applicants for medical reasons. You'll pay for the privilege, however: Monthly individual HMO premiums in Albany, N.Y., for example, run from $666 to $1,333.
Weber, meanwhile, is intrigued by the high-deductible plan linked to an HSA. "It sounds like an attractive option," he says. Gently reminded by McClanahan that he may need to take better care of himself to qualify, Weber says that he'll get his cholesterol tested at an upcoming company health screening and see his doctor soon. He's willing to put in the effort to make his retirement a masterpiece.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

How to Save $8,919.45 a Year

by Jessica Dickler

In tough times, consumers are looking to stretch their dollars further. Here are six simple ways to save thousands.

1. Strategic Shopping

Potential annual savings: $5,200
Stephanie Nelson, founder of couponmom.com, a site that tracks deals at your local grocery store, says that shoppers can save an average of $50 to $100 a week on their groceries if they spend about 30 minutes once a week planning out their supermarket trip.
Not only are there plenty of savings to be found in newspaper circulars and on online coupon sharing sites like coupons.com, but grocery stores like Safeway and Pathmark often have coupons on their sites. There are also coupons available direct from manufacturers. For example, SC Johnson offers printable coupons on its Web site for $2 off Windex and other popular household products. "People can save 50% on their grocery bill by using the store's sales, putting coupons on top of that and going to the Web for additional online coupons," Nelson said.
2. Skip Starbucks
Potential annual savings: $2,425
David Bach, the author of Go Green, Live Rich, contends that it is easy to save a few thousand dollars a year and cut down on waste simply by eliminating that morning coffee and a muffin. That's what he calls the "latte factor," and you'd be surprised how quickly that $5 breakfast-on-the-go every morning adds up. The same goes for lunch. The average American worker who buys lunch during the workweek spends $6.60 a day, according to a recent "Brown Bag" survey by ConAgra. And they are eating up a substantial savings opportunity. Buying enough ingredients to pack a lunch from home just three days a week can save about $600 a year.
3. Upgrade Your Appliances
Potential annual savings: $150
While we're on the eco-friendly bandwagon, using compact fluorescent light bulbs saves about $30 in electricity costs over each bulb's lifetime. But to really impact your bottom line, consider upgrading an old appliance like a refrigerator or dishwasher. Newer energy efficient appliances can save $50 to $150 a year in energy costs, according to Energy Star.
4. Go Generic
Potential annual savings: $161.20
Generic brands of food and drugs can cost 20% to 50% less than the name brand and you're not likely to tell the difference. "Don't be afraid to try a cheaper brand," advises ShopSmart deputy editor Sue Perry.For example, just buying the store's own brand of butter instead of Land O'Lakes can save about 25%. If you switch to your supermarket's generic brand of milk as well, that will translate into about $3 a week in savings, and that does a wallet good.
5. Pay an Extra $1 On Your Credit Cards
Potential annual savings: $203.25
Everyone knows that carrying a credit card balance can be costly. But if paying off that balance isn't in the cards, even the smallest change can pay huge dividends. Instead of buying a soda from the vending machine, Bill Hardekopf, CEO of LowCards.com, recommends putting that dollar toward your credit card balance.For example, if you typically pay $100 a month on a $5,000 balance with a 14% APR, try upping that payment by just a dollar a day. By paying an extra $30 a month, you'll pay off your balance in 52 months rather than 76 months, or cut your payments by two years. And you'll save $874 in interest payments over that time.
6. Sitter Sharing
Potential annual savings: $780
Sheila Lirio Marcelo, CEO of Care.com, which helps families find local caregivers, suggests teaming up with neighboring parents to share one babysitter. Although most providers pro-rate their fees according to the number of children they are watching, families that pool together can still save between 20% to 50% off the cost of childcare while they enjoy their weekly date night.

10 Steps to Retire a Millionaire

by Lisa Smith
Having a million-dollar portfolio is a retirement dream for many people. Making that dream come true requires some serious effort. While success is never a sure thing, the 10 steps outlined below will go a long way toward helping you achieve your objective.
1. Set the Goal
Nobody plans to fail, but plenty of people fail to plan. It's a cliché, but it's true. "Plan" is the leading self-help advice from athletes, business moguls and everyday people who have achieved extraordinary goals.
2. Start Saving
If you don't save, you'll never reach your goal. As obvious as this might seems, far too many people never even start to save. If your employer offers a 401(k) plan, enrolling in the plan is a great way to put your savings on autopilot. Simply sign up for the plan and contributions will be automatically taken out of your paycheck, increasing your savings and decreasing your immediate tax liability. If your employer offers to match your contributions up to a certain percentage, be sure to contribute enough to get the full match. It's like getting a guaranteed return on your investment. Finding the cash to stash may be a challenge, particularly when you're young, but don't let that stop you from pursuing future riches.
3. Get Aggressive
Studies have shown that the majority of the returns generated by an investment are dictated by the asset-allocation decision. If you are looking to grow your wealth over time, fixed-income investments aren't likely to get the job done, and inflation can take a big chunk out of your savings. Investing in equities entails more risk, but is also statistically likely to lead to greater returns. For many of us, it's a risk we have to take if want to see our wealth grow. Asset-allocation strategies can help you learn how to make picking the right mix of securities the core of your investing strategy.
4. Prepare for Rainy Days
Part of long-term planning involves accepting the idea that setbacks will occur. If you are not prepared, these setbacks can put a stop to your savings efforts. While you can't avoid all of the bumps in the road, you can prepare in advance to mitigate the damage they can do.
5. Save More
Your income should rise as time passes. You'll get raises, you'll change jobs, and maybe you'll get married and become a two-income family. Every time more cash comes in to your pocket, you should increase the amount that you save. The key to reaching your goal as quickly as possible is to save as much as you can.
6. Watch Your Spending
Vacations, car, kids and all of life's other expenses take a big chunk out of your paycheck. To maximize your savings, you need to minimize your spending. Buying a home you can afford and living a lifestyle that is below your means and not funded by credit cards are all necessities if you want to boost your savings.
7. Monitor Your Portfolio
There's no need to obsess over every movement of the Dow. Instead, check your portfolio once a year. Rebalance your asset allocation to keep on track with your plan.
8. Max Out Your Options
Take advantage of every savings opportunity that comes your way. Make the maximum contribution to tax-deferred savings plans and then open up a taxable account too. Don't let any chance to save get away.
9. Catch-Up Contributions
When you reach age50, you are eligible to increase contributions to tax-deferred savings plans. Take advantage of this opportunity!
10. Have Patience
"Get-rich-quick" schemes are usually just that - schemes. The power of compounding takes time, so invest early, invest often and accept that the road to riches is often long and slow. With that in mind, the sooner you get started, the better your odds of achieving your goals.
The Reality Of Retirement
Retirement might seem far away, but it when it arrives nobody ever complains about having too much money. Some people even question whether a million dollars is enough. That said, with lots of planning and discipline, you can reach your retirement goals and live a comfortable life after work.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

5 Daily Brain Exercises

Many men are devoted to exercise to bulk up their bodies, but the phrase “use it or lose it” applies to more than just the muscles in our bodies -- it also applies to the neural pathways and connections in our brains. There are a variety of exercises and activities that can successfully work each of the brain’s five major cognitive functions on a daily basis. In addition to the tasks you can perform daily, you can also train your brain with HAPPYneuron online brain games and a personalized brain fitness program.Our minds consist of five main cognitive functions:
memory,
attention,
language,
visual-spatial skills,
and executive function.It’s important to challenge, stimulate and effectively exercise all five areas to stay mentally sharp as our brains age. Here are 5 daily brain exercises that can help you do this.
1- MemoryMemory plays a crucial role in all cognitive activities, including reading, reasoning and mental calculation. There are several types of memory at work in the brain. Taken together, these are the cognitive skills we may notice most when they begin to fail. To maintain a good memory, you need to train for it, which can be easier than you think. Listening to music is not only enjoyable, but by choosing a song you don’t know and memorizing the lyrics, you boost the level of acetylcholine, the chemical that helps build your brain, and improve your memory skills. Challenge yourself even more by showering or getting dressed in the dark or using your opposite hand to brush your teeth. These challenges help build new associations between different neural connections of the brain.
Improve your memory with this HAPPYneuron game.
2- AttentionAttention is necessary in nearly all daily tasks. Good attention enables you to maintain concentration despite noise and distractions and to focus on several activities at once. We can improve our attention by simply changing our routines. Change your route to work or reorganize your desk -- both will force your brain to wake up from habits and pay attention again. As we age, our attention span can decrease, making us more susceptible to distraction and less efficient at multitasking. By combining activities like listening to an audio book with jogging or doing math in your head while you drive forces your brain to work at doing more in the same amount of time.
Improve your attention with this HAPPYneuron game.
3- LanguageLanguage activities will challenge our ability to recognize, remember and understand words. They also exercise our fluency, grammatical skills and vocabulary. With regular practice, you can expand your knowledge of new words and much more easily retrieve words that are familiar. For example, if you usually only thoroughly read the sports section, try reading a few in-depth business articles. You’ll be exposed to new words, which are easier to understand when read in context or easier to look up on a dictionary site if you are reading the news online. Take time to understand the word in its context, which will help you build your language skills and retrieve the word more readily in front of your boss in the future.
Improve your language skills with this HAPPYneuron game.
4- Visual-SpatialWe live in a colorful, three-dimensional world. Analyzing visual information is necessary to be able to act within your environment. To work this cognitive function, try walking into a room and picking out five items and their locations. When you exit the room, try to recall all five items and where they were located. Too easy? Wait two hours and try to remember those items and their locations. The next time you’re waiting on your coworker or friend to arrive, try this mental exercise. Look straight ahead and note everything you can see both in front of you and in your peripheral vision. Challenge yourself to recall everything and write it down. This will force you to use your memory and train your brain to focus on your surroundings.
Improve your visual-spatial skills with this HAPPYneuron game.
5- Executive FunctionWithout even realizing it, you use your logic and reasoning skills on a daily basis to make decisions, build up hypotheses and consider the possible consequences of your actions. Activities in which you must define a strategy to reach a desired outcome and calculate the right moves to reach the solution in the shortest possible time are actually fun activities you do daily -- like social interaction and, yes, video games. Engaging in a brief visit with a friend boosts your intellectual performance by requiring you to consider possible responses and desired outcomes. Video games require strategy and problem-solving to reach a desired outcome -- like making it to the final level. “It’s not just Halo, honey; I’m exercising my executive brain functions!”
Improve your executive function skills with this HAPPYneuron game.

Sunday, October 12, 2008

10 (More) Reasons You're Not Rich

by Jeffrey Strain

Many people assume they aren't rich because they don't earn enough money. If I only earned a little more, I could save and invest better, they say.
The problem with that theory is they were probably making exactly the same argument before their last several raises. Becoming a millionaire has less to do with how much you make, it's how you treat money in your daily life.
The list of reasons you may not be rich doesn't end at 10. Caring what your neighbors think, not being patient, having bad habits, not having goals, not being prepared, trying to make a quick buck, relying on others to handle your money, investing in things you don't understand, being financially afraid and ignoring your finances.
Here are 10 more possible reasons you aren't rich:
You care what your car looks like: A car is a means of transportation to get from one place to another, but many people don't view it that way. Instead, they consider it a reflection of themselves and spend money every two years or so to impress others instead of driving the car for its entire useful life and investing the money saved.
You feel entitlement: If you believe you deserve to live a certain lifestyle, have certain things and spend a certain amount before you have earned to live that way, you will have to borrow money. That large chunk of debt will keep you from building wealth.
You lack diversification: There is a reason one of the oldest pieces of financial advice is to not keep all your eggs in a single basket. Having a diversified investment portfolio makes it much less likely that wealth will suddenly disappear.
You started too late: The magic of compound interest works best over long periods of time. If you find you're always saying there will be time to save and invest in a couple more years, you'll wake up one day to find retirement is just around the corner and there is still nothing in your retirement account.
You don't do what you enjoy: While your job doesn't necessarily need to be your dream job, you need to enjoy it. If you choose a job you don't like just for the money, you'll likely spend all that extra cash trying to relieve the stress of doing work you hate.
You don't like to learn: You may have assumed that once you graduated from college, there was no need to study or learn. That attitude might be enough to get you your first job or keep you employed, but it will never make you rich. A willingness to learn to improve your career and finances are essential if you want to eventually become wealthy.
You buy things you don't use: Take a look around your house, in the closets, basement, attic and garage and see if there are a lot of things you haven't used in the past year. If there are, chances are that all those things you purchased were wasted money that could have been used to increase your net worth.
You don't understand value: You buy things for any number of reasons besides the value that the purchase brings to you. This is not limited to those who feel the need to buy the most expensive items, but can also apply to those who always purchase the cheapest goods. Rarely are either the best value, and it's only when you learn to purchase good value that you have money left over to invest for your future.
Your house is too big: When you buy a house that is bigger than you can afford or need, you end up spending extra money on longer debt payments, increased taxes, higher upkeep and more things to fill it. Some people will try to argue that the increased value of the house makes it a good investment, but the truth is that unless you are willing to downgrade your living standards, which most people are not, it will never be a liquid asset or money that you can ever use and enjoy.
You fail to take advantage of opportunities: There has probably been more than one occasion where you heard about someone who has made it big and thought to yourself, "I could have thought of that." There are plenty of opportunities if you have the will and determination to keep your eyes open.

Saturday, October 11, 2008

What This Economy Means for You

by Stephen Gandel and Paul J. Lim

As the most serious credit crisis in decades rocks your finances, you've got to have questions. Here are the answers.
Back in January, when it first became clear the economy and the markets were in for a rough patch, the consensus forecast was that we'd have seen the worst of it by now.
Perhaps you put a bit more cash in the bank, trimmed the fat from your budget and tweaked your 401(k) allocations, but otherwise you were confident you could stay the course.
Then came the extraordinary events of September: the government's seizure of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and rescue of American International Group; the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers and pending sale of Merrill Lynch; the first money market fund loss in more than a decade; a series of bank fire sales; and a politically charged federal bailout plan that could carry a $700 billion price tag. You can't help but wonder what all this means to you.
Here are some key questions, from when stocks could bounce back to what's ahead for the economy and home prices. Choose a topic to get some answers.
The Economy
How Did We Get Here?
By now you likely know that the crisis in the financial markets is the culmination of years of reckless mortgage lending and Wall Street dealmaking. It's the final gasp of the burst housing bubble. But how exactly did this happen?
To find the root cause of Wall Street's woes, you have to go back to the collapse of a different bubble - tech. In 2001, after the dotcom craze ended and the bear market began, the Federal Reserve started aggressively slashing short-term interest rates to stave off recession. By eventually reducing rates to a historically low 1%, the Fed reinflated the economy. But this cheap money sparked a new wave of risk taking.
Homeowners, armed with easy credit, snapped up properties as if they were playing Monopoly. As prices soared, buyers were able to afford ever-larger properties only by taking out risky mortgages that lenders were happily approving with little documentation or money down.
At the same time, Wall Street investment banks got a brilliant idea: bundle the riskiest of these mortgages, then slice and dice these portfolios into tradable bonds to be sold to other banks and investors. Amazingly, bond-rating agencies slapped their highest ratings on the "best" of this debt.
This house of cards came down when subprime borrowers began defaulting on their mortgages. That sent housing prices tumbling, unleashing a domino effect on mortgage-backed securities. Banks and brokerages that had borrowed money to boost the impact of those investments had to race to raise capital.
Some, like Merrill Lynch, were forced to sell. Others, like Lehman Brothers, weren't so lucky. "What we always tell investors is beware of too much leverage in a company," says Brian Rogers, chairman and portfolio manager for T. Rowe Price. "Leverage is the enemy of the investor."
Sure, everyone from former Fed chairman Alan Greenspan to your friends and neighbors played a role in stoking this casino culture. But troubled banks and brokerages can't pass the blame. "These firms closed their eyes and made very bad bets on risky securities that they didn't truly understand," says Jeremy Siegel, finance professor at the University of Pennsylvania's Wharton business school. "Investments that they did not have to make led to their demise."
How Bad Could the Economy Get?
Before the meltdown, economists fell into two camps: those who thought the economy had already slipped into recession and those who thought a recession could still be avoided.
While forecasters still differ on the timing and severity of a downturn, "the consensus view is that we're headed for recession and will be in one until next year," says Mark Zandi, chief economist for Moody's Economy.com.
Corporate profits are already on the verge of falling for a fifth straight quarter, according to Thomson Financial. The next shoe to drop will be consumer spending. "Two years ago, people were using their homes as ATMs, pumping out cash," says Robert Arnott, chairman of the investment consulting firm Research Affiliates in Pasadena. "As banks continue to tighten their lending, that spending is disappearing."
But softer profits and slower spending haven't translated into widespread layoffs yet. "This is the strongest recessionary job market in 40 years," says James Paulsen, chief investment strategist of Wells Capital Management. A jump in unemployment could still be coming, especially given bank and brokerage failures and mergers. But outside of finance and housing, much of the rest of the economy is strong, he says.
The weak dollar is boosting demand for our goods abroad, and lower gas prices are making Americans feel more flush. Add in the cash that the Fed has been hosing into the banking system and we are bound to see growth in 2009. "If all this stimulus has no effect on the economy, that would be a rarity indeed," says Paulsen.
Standard & Poor's chief economist David Wyss expects a mild recession that ends next spring. "Gradually we will regain confidence in the market. Lower oil prices and a falling trade deficit will help," he says. "This is a financial panic, not an economic one."
Of course, that could change if the financial panic doesn't abate soon. If banks remain too scared or broke to lend, would-be home buyers will be frozen out of the market. If that happens, home values could fall even more, crimping confidence and putting the brakes on the economy's greatest engine: the consumer.
Does All This Mean I'll Pay Higher Taxes?
Yes. "Taxes will rise regardless of who wins the Presidency," predicts Greg Valliere, chief political strategist for Stanford Group Co.
It's impossible to say what the final bill for rescuing Wall Street will be. Even before the bill to buy $700 billion of unwanted mortgage-backed debt, the government had already signed on for nearly $365 billion in loan guarantees and other costs.
The eventual price tag will depend in part on the housing market. If it recovers by 2010, the value of mortgage-backed securities could rise, minimizing the tab for taxpayers, says Brian Bethune, chief U.S. financial economist for Global Insight.
"On the other hand," Bethune adds, "if the economy continues to tank into a deeper recession, dragging the housing market along with it, then the costs to the taxpayers easily could escalate to several hundred billions of dollars."
Under Treasury Secretary Henry Paulson's original debt-buyback proposal, some economists predicted the federal deficit could soar to $900 billion in 2009. Even without a bailout, the federal budget was expected to hit $482 billion next year. If government aid pads that figure by $200 billion, the deficit will be back to where it stood in the 1980s - around 5% of GDP. At the very least, that will make it hard for a future President to keep tax-cut promises.
The Stock Market
When Will Stocks Bounce Back?
Don't expect an immediate rebound. "Investors shouldn't get overly enthusiastic," says Jean-Marie Eveillard, portfolio manager for the First Eagle Funds. Why? Even if Washington gets its act together, the economy will remain a drag. "In a time of slow growth, profits will not be that great," Eveillard says.
Remember too that a massive government rescue plan could have unintended consequences. If the budget deficit were to balloon - as many economists assume it would - that could further weaken the dollar, which would lead to another bout of inflation fears.
Rising inflation and a falling dollar, in turn, would likely boost market interest rates, since it will take a big carrot to entice foreign investors to buy U.S. bonds. When rates are on the rise, investors typically aren't willing to pay up for stocks in the form of higher price/earnings ratios.
Economists are predicting that a recession could last through next spring or even the fall. Does this mean stocks will languish that entire time? No. Equities have a knack for rallying in anticipation of an eventual recovery. So a stock market rebound could take place sometime in the first half of 2009. Until then, don't hold your breath.
If the Outlook Is So Bad, Why Not Dump Stocks?
Selling stocks after they've sunk to a three-year low in hopes of buying them back after they're trading at higher prices is a surefire recipe for losing your shirt.
While it's understandable to want to flee, Bohemia, N.Y. financial planner Ronald Rogé suggests taking a cue from Warren Buffett. "Here's the smartest guy on the block, and his firm, Berkshire Hathaway, is down like most other stocks this year." But instead of looking to sell, Buffett is buying. Recently he agreed to plow $5 billion into Goldman Sachs.
Still have the urge to purge your portfolio? Consider this: So far this year, fund investors have yanked more money out of their stock funds than they've put in, marking only the third time in recent memory this has happened. The other two times? In 2002, just before a five-year bull market, and 1988, the start of a 12-year bull.
"If you leave the market now entirely, you probably won't make it back in time to enjoy the recovery," says Torrance, Calif. financial planner Phillip Cook. According to Standard & Poor's, equities typically recoup a third of what they lost in a bear market in the first 40 days of a new bull.
Are Stocks Still Best for the Long Run?
If you've been a stock investor over the past decade, you probably feel like the mythical Sisyphus: You've been trying to roll your portfolio up the hill, only to see the market keep batting it back down. Stocks are trading lower than they were at the start of 2000. Even boring bonds have beaten equities during this time.
But disappointing performance doesn't erase the case for stocks. Over the long term (meaning more than a decade), equities give you something fixed-income investments can't: a share of growth. The benefit of owning a stake in a company - as the Treasury Department, no doubt, understands with the majority position it is taking in exchange for helping AIG - is that you get to share in the earnings of the firm. And because stock prices, over time, reflect corporate profit growth, you're likely to far outpace the long-term rate of inflation.
If your faith in stocks is still wavering, consider the last time they performed so poorly: the 1930s. "What if you concluded then that stocks weren't the best place to be?" says Alan Skrainka, chief market strategist for Edward Jones. "You'd have missed out on decades of bull markets."
Your Savings
Are There Any Safe Havens Left?
It sure doesn't feel like it. Even conservative investments - like ultrashort- term bond funds and a single money market fund - have lost value recently. But rest assured, your cash accounts are still extremely safe. To shore up confidence in money-market mutual funds after a prominent portfolio "broke the buck," the Treasury Department launched an insurance plan to guarantee their value.
What's more, bank money-market accounts and CDs are as protected as ever. While it's certainly hard to tell which banks will eventually survive this financial meltdown, your accounts are FDIC-insured.
Finally, if you're looking for a safe option within your 401(k), consider a stable value fund. These portfolios often invest in a diversified mix of short- to intermediate- term bonds that are backed by different insurers. Plus, they've been yielding around 4% lately.
Is My Bank or Brokerage Going to Disappear?
Even with the government stepping in to buy up the crummy mortgage-backed securities that are endangering the health of so many banks and brokers, this relief won't be immediate. It may take weeks for the Treasury Department to put together a team to evaluate these bonds. In the meantime, more banks and brokers could go under or be forced to sell out to healthier firms.
Still, the tally of failed banks is unlikely to come close to the number we saw in the savings and loan crisis. Between 1986 and 1995, 1,043 thrifts went under (though many of them were tiny). So far this year, only 13 banks and savings and loans have failed, according to the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. That includes Washington Mutual, the nation's largest S&L, which was shut down before its deposits were sold to J.P. Morgan Chase.
Regardless of what the final tally is, it's important to keep in mind that your bank deposits are for the most part safe. Deposits up to $250,000 per person per institution and $500,000 for joint accounts will be protected by the FDIC (The FDIC temporarily raised the limits from $100,000 and $200,000 respectively through December 30, 2009.). Some retirement accounts are covered up to $250,000.
Investment banks and brokerages have also come under pressure. Here too you are mostly protected. Unlike commercial banks, which use your deposits to lend to other customers, brokerages are supposed to segregate your assets from theirs. So if you own 1,000 shares of General Electric and your brokerage collapses, your 1,000 shares of GE should still be there and will most likely be transferred to another broker on your behalf.
If for any reason your failed broker can't locate your securities, up to $500,000 of your assets per account is covered by the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, a nonprofit funded by member firms. With a few exceptions, SIPC limits its safety net to SEC-registered investments. So while your stocks, bonds and mutual funds will be covered, foreign currency, precious metals and commodity futures contracts won't be.
Insurance

What Would Happen If My Insurer Went Under?
You may have wondered that very thing before the federal government stepped in with an $85 billion loan guarantee to save American International Group from bankruptcy. Since then no other large insurance company appears to be in similar peril. That's because few insure mortgage bonds, the business that contributed to AIG's problems.
In the event that your insurer goes belly up, you have protections. If you have an outstanding claim when your insurer fails, a state guaranty fund will cover it. The rules vary, but funds typically pay up to $300,000 in claims on most policies.
In nearly all states, disability payouts have no caps. With a variable annuity, you are completely protected because you're investing in mutual-fund-like separate accounts held in your name, and insurance companies can't touch those assets when they liquidate.
If you have yet to collect on your insurance policy, will you face any coverage gaps? With life insurance, you shouldn't lose coverage: In past failures, regulators have moved policies of failed insurers to healthy ones. For most other types of insurance, you'll have 30 days to find another insurer. And if you have paid in advance for, say, a year's worth of homeowners insurance, you can apply for a refund from your state insurance fund.
The Real Estate Market
Is There Any Hope for Home Prices?
The burst real estate bubble that kicked off this crisis is unlikely to reinflate quickly. "I don't see the slump in housing prices ending anytime soon," says Dean Baker, co-director of the Center for Economic Policy and Research. The government takeover of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lowered mortgage rates briefly (which helps buyers afford your home).
But the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers, the failure of Washington Mutual and the sale of Wachovia, as well as the stock market sell-off, have made investors nervous about everything, mortgage bonds included. And that has pushed home-loan rates right back up.
The proposed government bailout could help home prices if the banks that get relief turn around and make new loans, but it's not clear that they will. More important, housing prices are not just a factor of mortgage rates. Foreclosures and slow sales have left 4-million-plus homes on the market, nearly half a million more than two years ago. That could get worse before it gets better if rising unemployment translates to fewer buyers to work off that fat inventory.
"In the long run none of what we're doing now is going to matter that much to real estate," says Wellesley economics professor Karl Case. "Home prices have to do with the scarcity of land and perception of that scarcity."
Until homes for sale are again scarce, it will continue to be better to be a buyer than a seller. Most economists expect another 10% drop in housing prices nationally over the next year. Some, like Nouriel Roubini of New York University, say a 15% to 20% drop is more likely.
The Credit Market

How Tough Is It Really to Get a Loan Today?
For months you've likely been hearing about (or even experiencing) tight credit: frozen home-equity lines of credit, lower credit-card limits, tougher loan standards. That could be just the beginning. One reason regulators have been so anxious to step in during this crisis is the fear that consumer and business borrowing will be shut off altogether.
For now, though, many people are still able to get loans. "If you have good credit, job stability and low debt, there is a good likelihood that you will get a mortgage," says Marc Savitt, president of the National Association of Mortgage Brokers.
In general you'll need a 660 credit score and a 10% down payment to qualify for a loan. Another important criterion is how much of your monthly income goes to repaying all your debts. Today lenders want you to cap that at 41% of your income.
Getting a small business loan is similarly tough. But if you can borrow and have the itch to strike out on your own, small business experts say economic downturns can be a good time to start a venture. In bad times, you may find better deals on, say, advertising and office space. And some of the land mines are more apparent.
"When existing companies are stumbling, it's more obvious what mistakes are to be avoided," says Bob Chalfin, a Metuchen, N.J. small business adviser and a lecturer at the Wharton business school. "When there is change, there is opportunity."
The Job Market
How Safe Is My Job?
If you are an investment banker, you already know the answer. If you work in most other fields, you're likely nervous but not panic-stricken. In the past year the U.S. economy has shed just over 550,000 jobs, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, but most of the layoffs have come in home building, the auto industry and financial services. Take those three industries out of the equation and our economy has created 90,000 jobs.
"Companies are continuing to add executive positions even as the market slows," says Mark Anderson, president of ExecuNet, a Norwalk, Conn. firm that tracks management hiring.
The recent financial turmoil could make the jobs outlook tougher, and not just for Wall Street types. If business lending stays choked off, hiring will suffer. In a deeper recession, some economists predict more than 1 million jobs will be lost in 2009.
Now is the time to make sure your emergency fund is in place. Three months of expenses is standard, but if you are in an at-risk industry, sock away enough for six months to a year.
At work, lower your chances of being the first out the door by making yourself valuable - and conspicuous. This may be the time to reconsider your flexible schedule. Demonstrate that you can find ways to bring in revenue and cut costs, don't be afraid to point out the good job you and your team are doing and, to be safe, step up your networking, both inside and outside your company.
Your Retirement
Will I Ever Be Able to Retire?
If you have several years, if not decades, to go, don't worry. Yes, your 401(k) and IRAs have taken a significant hit. But history shows that you'll make up 80% of your bear market losses within the first year of the recovery, according to Standard & Poor's Equity Research.
If you're planning to retire in the next few years, the answer is still yes, with a bit of effort. Why? The decade before you quit your job and the first five years that you're out of the work force are vulnerable times. How much your investments earn - or lose - during this time will go a long way toward determining how much money you can afford to spend for the following 30 years or more.
Say you planned to quit this year and begin withdrawing 4% of your retirement funds annually. If you started with a $1 million retirement portfolio last year (split 70% stocks, 30% bonds), the market has already cut that down to $833,000. That means if you pulled 4% of your remaining money out, you'd be left with just under $800,000 after Year One, cutting your odds of having your money last 30 years from nearly 80% to less than 50%.
Sounds scary. But you can fix this problem. For starters, pledge to work one more year. A study from T. Rowe Price found that putting in another 365 days at the job would boost your annual retirement income by 7%. Work three years more and your retirement income could soar by 22%.
By staying at your desk longer, you can also delay taking Social Security benefits. For each year you put off starting your benefits between ages 62 and 70, you boost your Social Security payments by 8%.
What if you don't want to - or can't - work longer? You still have an option: spend less. The traditional advice is to withdraw 4% of your assets in the first year of retirement and boost subsequent withdrawals by the inflation rate. But in this type of market, consider withholding your inflation adjustments for the first three years after you retire. T. Rowe Price found that a retiree with a 55% stock/45% bond allocation in 2000 would have cut his odds of running out of money by half simply by following this approach.
What Should I Be Doing With My Portfolio?
Every long-term investor has to face nerve-rattling times like this - likely more than once - and your success will hinge on your ability to keep a cooler head than many others around you.
If you own a diversified portfolio, your asset-allocation strategy has probably protected you from the worst of the storm. While the S&P 500 has lost more than a quarter of its value over the past year, a portfolio consisting of 70% stocks and 30% bonds has fallen around 17%, thanks to the gains fixed-income funds enjoyed.
Still, markets like this are a good time to check if your asset-allocation strategy is still appropriate for your time horizon and if you need to rebalance. You'll likely find that you own too big a stake in bonds - or at least more than you bargained for.
Let's go back to that portfolio of 70% stocks and 30% bonds. If you hadn't traded in the past year, the market would have shifted your mix to 62% stocks and 38% fixed income. That might feel good now because bonds are less volatile, but it will mean that you will lose out on the higher returns on stocks when the market eventually recovers.
If you're selling bonds to add to stocks, what's safe to buy? It's fair to assume that the government's efforts to bail out Wall Street will add to our national debt, which will likely push up interest rates. Basic-materials stocks tend to do well when rates rise. So consider T. Rowe Price New Era, which owns energy and mining stocks. New Era is a member of the Money 70, our list of recommended funds and ETFs.
Also, beef up your blue chips. As Lehman and WaMu shareholders learned, not every large company can weather tough times. But as a whole, the category clearly can. The Vanguard 500 Index (VFINX) is the safest way to invest in the largest American companies.
Another sound option is the Fairholme fund (FAIRX). The managers of this Money 70 fund follow the Warren Buffett school of investing. They buy a stock only if it's trading well below its intrinsic value - perhaps a richly populated universe after this market meltdown.
If you see that the bond portion of your portfolio is underperforming, consider Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities (TIPS), one of the few types of bonds that can do well when rates rise.
I'm Retired. What Does This Mean for Me?
If you're living off a collection of dividend-paying stocks, it may feel as if you've been hit by the perfect storm. Not only have financial stocks, which generate around a quarter of all the dividends produced by the S&P 500, taken a huge beating - they've sunk nearly 45% since the start of this bear - but 30 blue-chip financial firms have cut their dividends.
Worse still, not all of the income you'll receive this year will be eligible for the beneficial 15% tax rate. For dividends to qualify for the rate, the company that issues them must pay taxes on them. And since many banks and brokers are reporting huge losses, they may not owe a penny to Uncle Sam this year.
As long as you diversify among different stocks as well as different sectors, dividend investing still has a lot of appeal. One strategy that's holding up, relatively speaking: Instead of focusing on companies with the highest yields - which could simply be a sign that a payer's share price has tanked or the dividend is at risk - concentrate on companies that are consistently growing their payouts over time. By doing so, the Vanguard Dividend Growth fund (VDIGX) has kept its exposure to the financial sector to only around 11%, and the fund is down just 10% so far this year, about half what the overall market has lost.
In the wake of the near failure of AIG, another worry for retirees is whether to buy an immediate annuity. In exchange for handing over a lump sum of money to an insurer, you get monthly or annual payments guaranteed for life with one of these policies. In this environment, it's hard enough to have faith that your financial institution will be around for the next three months, let alone three decades.
But bear in mind that no major insurer has failed in this meltdown. Even though AIG required $85 billion in loan guarantees to stay in business, it was the parent company that needed the help - not its insurance subsidiary.
In the event your insurer does fail, your state's life and health insurance guaranty association will attempt to find another carrier to take over the failed firm's contracts. If that can't be done, state guaranty funds will cover at least $100,000 in benefits (around 20 states cover more).
There is one reason to hold off awhile before you enter a new contract: Rating agencies like A.M. Best, Moody's, Fitch and Standard & Poor's are likely to re-assess the financial health of insurers in the wake of the financial crisis. Wait to see which insurers maintain the highest ratings.
How Will I Know When Things Are Recovering?
An oft-quoted Warren Buffett bit of wisdom goes that the stock market is designed to transfer money from the active to the patient. Keep that in mind when you wonder when this crisis is over for good.
Let's remember what this crisis is all about. It's not just about problems with bad mortgages and toxic mortgage-backed bonds. "That's just the tip of the iceberg," says Charles de Vaulx, portfolio manager for International Value Advisers. The reason that we're still stuck in a bear market and that loans are hard to come by is the ongoing crisis in confidence in the financial system that greases the wheels of the economy. It may take months, if not longer, for the markets to get enough courage to overcome this.
Whether you're an investor or a would-be borrower looking for a sign of better days to come, pay attention to the so-called overnight London Interbank offered rate. Libor is a rate banks charge one another. The lower it is, the greater the likelihood that banks are willing to lend freely - and the sooner this credit crisis may be over.
Historically, Libor has run fairly close to the federal funds rate, which the Fed is currently targeting at 2%. But lately the overnight Libor has fluctuated between around 3% and 6%, an indication that banks still perceive a great deal of risk in the market.
In the short run, that's not great news for investors or consumers waiting for banks to start lending again. In the long run, however, the fact that banks are starting to consider risk isn't necessarily bad. After all, says Steven Romick, manager of the FPA Crescent Fund, "the reason we're in this mess is that financial institutions tried to make money without any regard to the concept of risk."